Metals - Mining

In 2004, tin performed the best of the six base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange with prices increasing by almost 150% between August 2002 and May 2004. Tin's market strength is underpinned by increasing demand, stagnant supply and low inventories. The market is expected to be in deficit until at least 2006, with a shortfall of around 15kt in 2004. Projects in Australia, Brazil, Egypt, Argentina, Russia and the UK could add 25kt to mine supply over the next five years, with the first new production coming on-stream by the end of 2004. Tin consumption exceeded 300kt for the first time in 2003, and is expected to be around 330kt in 2004.

Demand is expected to increase in all end-use sectors over the next five years, but the fastest growth rates will be in solder and chemicals, with an overall rate of 3.5%py and resulting in a market of 365Ktpy in 2008. Chemical applications now provide a larger market than tinplate, which was once the major end use for tin before declining in the 1970s and 1980s, as a result of its decreasing use in beverage canning market. The fundamentals of the tin market point to continued strength well into 2006, with the price remaining between $8,000 and $9,500/t. There is, however, an argument for considerably higher prices, should world economies continue to grow at or about the rates seen in 2004, and tin supply struggles to keep pace.

'The Economics of Tin' analyses the key trends, issues and developments in the market. It provides a clear insight into all areas of the industry and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c17905

Laura Wood
Senior Manager
Research and Markets
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